Why Your Ads Are About to Eat Your Profit Alive in Q4

Hey it’s Max from The Inbox Newsletter.

Let’s not sugarcoat it: Q4 is coming, and it’s about to be a profit bloodbath for brands depending on ads to carry them through.

If you’re not doubling down on email and SMS now, you’re in for a long Q4…

Key Takeaways:

• Q4 ad costs are about to skyrocket, every year Q4 CPMs rise

• Relying solely on paid traffic for BFCM is the most expensive game in ecom.

• Your owned channels (email & SMS) are your only real profit levers this quarter.

• List size, warmth, and strategy will decide if you thrive or survive.

The Paid Ads Profit Problem

Every Q4, the same thing happens:

More competition → Skyrocketing CPMs → Declining ROAS → Large discounts on your products → Slashed margins → Sexy revenue numbers but sh*tty profit numbers

And yet most brands keep playing this losing game, dumping thousands into ads that barely break even (if that) once you factor in discounts.

Here’s the truth of the ecom funnel:

Paid ads acquire traffic.

Email and SMS profitably monetize that traffic.

And in Q4, only one of those is affordable.

Just look at the rise of CPMs in Q4 last year…

Email & SMS = Your Profit Engine

If you're looking for a high-ROI channel that doesn't break when the ad auction heats up, it's your owned list.

Let’s do the math:

• Email averages 41x ROI.

• SMS converts 5310% higher than cold traffic.

• Open rates on SMS = ~98%

• CPMs are essentially $0.

One of our client brands below made 62% of their November revenue from email alone on a $3,000/month Klaviyo bill.

That’s a 195x ROI. Try pulling that from Meta.

What to Do NOW If You Want to Be Profitable This Q4

This is your playbook if you want to come out of BFCM with cash in your pocket:

1. Stack Your List-ASAP

Paid traffic is fine if you convert it into owned traffic. Optimize your pop-up forms and drive cold visitors into email/SMS sequences that convert. If you aren’t capturing 8–10% of site visitors into email/sms subs, you’re burning budget.

2. Warm The List Up

Multiple campaigns per week. Campaigns with purpose. Pre-BFCM education, brand storytelling, social proof. Hit every angle now, so your audience is primed to buy before your sale even drops.

3. Build Your Offer Calendar

You need strong, distinct offers for:

• Early Access

• Black Friday

• Cyber Monday

• Holiday Gifting

Your email/SMS campaign calendar should be done and scheduled by October so you can prep and get your marketing materials ready.

Last Word: If You Want Profit This Q4… Don’t Depend on Ads

The most dangerous thing you can do is assume this year will be like last year.
Ad platforms are more expensive. Consumers are more skeptical. Margins are thinner.

Email and SMS are the last profit levers you control.

I made a video with Jackson Blackledge (Google Ads expert) breaking down How to Win BFCM Before It Even Starts… watch the video here »

Get Your Free Custom Q4 Playbook

I’m personally running free audits and giving Q4 gameplans to brands above $50k/mo who book a call with us below.

Claim yours before I go insane with the amount of Q4 analysis I will be doing.

Claim Q4 Playbook »

Email Inspiration Of The Day

Brand:
Kitsch

Email Design:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-4mE-DuejEGfEh6EnnB6A7zV4q4cjwi5/view?usp=sharing

Notes:
Love this idea for a sale… “28% OFF” rather than something flat like 25% or 30%.

It stands out a bit more and will be remembered. I like it!

Template of The Day

If you want access to a bank of 134 mix and match templates like this equating to over 5,000+ possible email designs, click here » 

Reply to this email if you have any questions or further content you want covered.

Cheers,

Max

PS - If you run a 7-9 figure ecommerce brand and you want to have a free email strategy consultation, book a call here »

PPS - I have a few different products you can buy. If you purchase any one of these products you get access to my private community of 1500+ members with daily posts from me, access to me for support 24/7, and private calls.

• Ecommerce Email Mastery: A 60 lesson course breaking down everything you need to know about ecommerce email marketing in the most concise and organized manner. learn more »

• Mix and Match Email Design Templates: 134 email section templates that can make 5,000+ unique email designs with, learn more »

• QuickFlow Templates: All core 7 core email marketing flows fully templatized with examples, learn more »