Ecommerce Black Friday / Cyber Monday 2025... Q4 Prep

Hey it’s Max from The Inbox Newsletter.

For most ecommerce brands, Q4 is a big deal.

If you nail BFCM, you ride the revenue wave into the new year. If you miss… you’re stuck playing catch-up for months.

Here’s the part nobody tells you: Your Q4 results have almost nothing to do with what you do in November.

The winners start winning in August.

Key Takeaways:

1. Your Black Friday/Cyber Monday results are determined by what you do in August–October, not November.

2. The cheapest, highest ROI leads come from Q3 and early Q4 email / sms list building, not cold ads in Q4.

3. Email/SMS convert 5–10x higher than cold traffic, so growing these lists early is your #1 priority.

4. Use high-intent Google search + pre-sale campaigns to build your list at a fraction of November costs.

5. Optimize pop-ups for commitment bias and double opt-ins to hit 10%+ conversion rates.

I teamed up with the Google Ads GOAT, Jackson Blackledge, on a BFCM prep guide and YouTube video to share how we break BFCM records every year.

I’m going to summarize what we talked about in this newsletter.

You can watch the full video / guide here »

Background: Why BFCM is Won Before It Starts

Black Friday/Cyber Monday is the Super Bowl of ecommerce. For many brands, this single weekend can account for 20–40% of their annual revenue.

But the reality is that by the time November rolls around, the game is already decided.

Why?

• Ad costs explode - Meta CPMs jump 50%, Google CPCs can double or triple.

• Competition is brutal - Every brand is screaming into the same inboxes and chasing the same shoppers.

• Cold traffic is skeptical - In a world where everyone’s been hit with endless “SALE” emails, strangers are far less likely to buy without trust.

The brands that crush Q4 don’t rely on last-minute ad blitzes. They’ve spent Q3 building warm, owned audiences that cost a fraction to reach and convert 5–10x better than cold prospects.

That’s why we’re going to focus on a two-part strategy:

1. Build high-intent, high-ROI Google Ads targeting specific keywords

2. Capture the ad traffic with banger opt-in forms to grow your owned list for Q4

Part 1 — Build the List Before the Sale

When you wait until November to start acquiring customers, you’re fighting the most expensive, competitive ad market of the year.

Meta CPMs jump 50%, Google CPCs spike, and your acquisition costs can triple.

Instead:

• Use August–October to buy leads cheap (40–80¢ clicks vs. $6–8 clicks in November).

• Focus on email + SMS lists… owned channels with 41x ROI that don’t get more expensive in Q4.

• Warm them up with educational content so by BFCM, they’re primed to buy.

Part 2 — Capture High-Intent Traffic the Smart Way

Most brands either skip Google Ads or only target expensive bottom-of-funnel keywords like “buy collagen powder.”

Instead, target top-of-funnel educational searches:

• “How to improve skin after 50” (82¢ CPC)

• “Signs of low testosterone” (under $1 CPC)

• “Natural ways to build muscle after 40” (60–70¢ CPC)

These clicks are cheaper, and with the right lead magnet (guide, quiz, early-access sign-up), they convert into warm leads ready to shop your BFCM sale.

Bonus: Create pre-sale pages in October for early access sign-ups… “Get our Black Friday deal 48 hours before everyone else” works like magic.

Part 3 — Optimize Pop-Ups to Convert 10%+

Your ad dollars are wasted if your pop-up isn’t built to convert.

We’ve found survey-based pop-ups beat generic “Enter your email for 10% off” every time.

Why? Commitment bias - people start with answering an easy question (“What are you shopping for?”), and then they’re more likely to enter their email + SMS.

Best practices:

• Trigger 4–6 seconds after page load

• Make the offer the biggest element (bold, in-your-face)

• Separate email and SMS steps

• Use a full-screen pop-up, not a tiny box

• Hide the close “X” and use “No thanks, I’ll pay full price” instead

I HIGHLY recommend using Alia for email pop-ups… guarantee they will get you 50-100% more opt-ins minimum and skyrocket your list growth. We use them for almost all our clients. Link to download Shopify App »

You can also book a demo call here and for “where did you first hear about us'“ say “Max from Well Copy sent me” and you will get a bonus deal 😉 

Part 4 — Segment & Attack in Q4

When BFCM hits, segment your list into:

1. New Subscribers – Push first-time buyer offers & social proof.

2. Existing Customers – Give loyalty perks & bundle deals.

3. High-Value Customers – Offer VIP exclusives, limited editions.

4. Lapsed Customers – Use aggressive win-back offers.

Run dedicated Google Ads + email/SMS campaigns for each group.

Part 5 — Email/SMS Execution for BFCM Week

• Unsuppress old inactive profiles for maximum reach.

• Cycle three different offers across Early Access, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday to get repeat purchases.

• Send 2–3 emails/day and 1–2 SMS/day — inbox life is short during BFCM.

• Mix in plain-text founder emails to cut through the noise and dodge the spam folder.

Bottom Line: If you want to win BFCM, the time to start is now. Every week you wait, those cheap $1–$2 clicks turn into $6–$8 fights for cold traffic that probably won’t convert.

Build the list. Warm the list. Segment the list. Then unleash in Q4.

Watch the full video with Jackson here »

Email Inspiration Of The Day

Brand:
Graza

Email Design:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1RrJqOpmjVvERZpsbBOv-ApAICVYGsKGy/view?usp=sharing 

Notes:
Nice abandonment email from Graza… very simple and clean.

I would probably opt to add a bit more social proof at the bottom BUT I’m a fan of the overall layout of the email and would be curious in testing this.

Template of The Day

If you want access to a bank of 134 mix and match templates like this equating to over 5,000+ possible email designs, click here » 

Helpful Links Of The Day

• 100 non-discount email campaigns

• If you have a subscription based business… do this

• Cool new chatgpt 5 use case

Reply to this email if you have any questions or further content you want covered.

Cheers,

Max

PS - If you run a 7-9 figure ecommerce brand and you want to have a free email strategy consultation, book a call here »

PPS - I have a few different products you can buy. If you purchase any one of these products you get access to my private community of 1500+ members with daily posts from me, access to me for support 24/7, and private calls.

• Ecommerce Email Mastery: A 60 lesson course breaking down everything you need to know about ecommerce email marketing in the most concise and organized manner. learn more »

• Mix and Match Email Design Templates: 134 email section templates that can make 5,000+ unique email designs with, learn more »

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